The Behavioural Science of Governments

GOVERNMENTS MAKE DECISIONS BASED UPON THE FOLLOWING INSTINCTS

Below is a concise list which helps differentiate the motivations behind government decision-making, from a

behavioural science perspective. It is intended to be a quick reference with which to consult with to make

sense of why and how governments do the things they do.

No matter what industry or sector you belong, it is of critical importance to understand the various ways to influence government policy making and to gain an understanding of the drivers behind the decision-making.

Often, industries are dumbfounded by government decisions made in the face of what they believe to be overwhelming evidence to the contrary. They also perceive many decisions as originating not from rigorous research, analysis and stakeholder consultation, but from sheer bloody-mindedness: tunnel vision on an objective, no matter the competing views, data and perspectives.

Before we get to the politco-headshrinking, skim the last decade of West Australian decisions below. Then as you read the drivers list later on, see which ones you can match to each decision.

FIRST TERM: MCGOWAN, 2017 TO 2021. GOVERNMENT WITHOUT AN UPPER HOUSE MAJORITY

Year	Issue	Who Was Affected	Usual Political Alignment	Result	Stakeholder Voter Size
2017	Roe 8 / Perth Freight Link	Freight lobby and civil contractors	Business, Coalition-leaning	Lost	About 230 CCF WA member firms (CCF, 2017)
2017	Perth Modern relocation	Parents, students and alumni	Mixed	Won	13,000 or 6,000 (petitions differ)
2017–23	Police pay	Police officers (WA Police Union)	Organised labour / mixed	Lost	7,000+
2017–25	Hospitals and ramping	Doctors (AMA WA) and health unions	Mixed	Partial	About 5,000 AMA WA members (AusDoc, 2024)
2018	Schools of the Air cuts	Regional families	Regional, Nationals	Won	About 32,000 (petition)
2018	Community resource centres	105 community resource centres	Regional, Nationals	Won	105 centres, about 395 staff and 1,000+ volunteers (Linkwest, 2018)
2018	Taxi plate buyback	Taxi plate owners	Mixed	Partial	About 1,035 Perth taxi plates (Dept of Transport, 2017)
2018	Fracking moratorium	Onshore gas industry	Big-Business, Coalition-leaning	Partial	Titles over about 2% of the State (WA Government)
2019	Rock lobster state stake	Commercial rock lobster fishers	Regional, Nationals-leaning	Won	About 230 boats (DPIRD)
2019	EPA greenhouse guidelines	LNG majors	Business, Coalition-leaning	Won	A handful of LNG operators
2019	Voluntary assisted dying	Churches, minority religious faiths and many parts of the medical profession	Social Conservative	Lost	41% of Western Australians identified as Christian (ABS Census 2021)
2020	Industrial manslaughter	Employer groups (CCIWA, CME)	Business, Coalition-leaning	Lost	CME WA about 130 member companies; CCIWA thousands of businesses, many concerned peak body groups
2020–26	Westport, Fremantle to Kwinana	Fremantle council, businesses, MUA and fishers	Mixed, Organised Labour, Business Interests, Social Dimension	Lost	Up to 4,000 port-linked jobs claimed by opponents (Fremantle coalition, 2024)
2020	COVID hard border	Clive Palmer and business	Business, Coalition-leaning	Lost	One litigant but strong community disdain

SECOND TERM: MCGOWAN, THEN COOK, 2021 TO 2025. GOVERNMENT CONTROLS THE UPPER HOUSE

Year	Issue	Who Was Affected	Usual Party Alignment	Result	Stakeholder Voter Size
2021	Native forest logging ban	Timber industry and workers	Regional, Nationals and Liberal-leaning	Lost	300 to 400 jobs lost (Minister) - timber town communities affected (30,000 people)
2021–22	COVID vaccine mandates	Unvaccinated workers and protest groups	Minor parties and civil liberties groups	Partial	About 1.1 million workers covered, 75% of the workforce (WA Government). Some industries got waivers, some didn't.
2021	Upper house electoral reform	Nationals and regional WA	Regional, Nationals	Lost	About 416,000 regional electors of 1.72 million (WAEC 2021, derived) †
2022	Coal power exit	Collie coal workers and unions	Organised labour	Lost	About 1,300 Collie coal workers, 1,800 with contractors. 7,500 town pop.
2022	Buccaneer Archipelago marine parks	Kimberley recreational fishers and charter operators	Regional	Partial	Not counted
2022	Doctors' pay dispute	Public hospital doctors (AMA WA)	Professional, non-aligned	Lost	About 5,000 AMA WA members (AusDoc, 2024)
2022	Nurses' pay dispute	Public sector nurses and midwives	Organised labour	Lost	About 23,000
2023	West coast demersal closures (first round)	Recreational boat fishers, charter operators and commercial line fishers	Cross-aligned	Partial	99 charter licence holders (Recfishwest) - wider public and hospitality (seafood consumers)
2023	Local government reform	WALGA and councils	Non-partisan	Lost	139 councils, about 1,200 elected members
2023	Aboriginal Cultural Heritage Act	Farmers, suburban landholders, Aboriginal groups	Cross-aligned	Won	About 30,000 petition signatures + widespread public outcry
2023	Firefighters' pay dispute	Career firefighters	Organised labour	Lost	About 1,300 career firefighters (DFES annual report 2022-23: 1,266)
2023	Abortion law reform	Churches, minority religious groups and pro-life groups	Social conservative	Lost	25% to 33% of 17,514 consultation responses opposed each change (WA Health, 2023), Large 'culture war' issue with public interest
2023	Planning reform	WALGA and councils	Non-partisan	Lost	139 councils, about 1,200 elected members
2024	Nickel royalty relief	Nickel miners	Business, Coalition-leaning	Won	Almost 10,000 related nickel jobs
2024	Tenancy reform	Landlords (REIWA)	Property investors, Liberal-leaning	Partial	About 220,000 rental properties (REIWA, bond data 2023)
2024	Short-term rental register	Short-stay hosts	Mixed	Lost	11,556 registered short-stay properties (Consumer Protection, July 2025)
2024	Firearms Act	Firearm licence holders	Regional, Nationals and minor parties	Lost	About 88,000 licence holders
2024	Live sheep export, federal	Sheep producers	Regional, Nationals and Liberal	Lost	About 4,000 WA farms with sheep (ABARES)
2024	Teachers' pay dispute	Public school teachers	Organised labour	Won	Around 27,000
2024	South Coast Marine Park	Commercial and recreational fishers and south coast towns	Regional, Nationals	Partial	5,860-signature petition (Nationals WA)
2024	Nurses' pay, second round	Public sector nurses and midwives	Organised labour	Won	About 23,000
2025	Nature Positive laws, federal	Mining and resources	Business, Coalition-leaning	Partial	Mining workforce; nickel alone almost 10,000 jobs

THIRD TERM: COOK, 2025 ONWARDS. GOVERNMENT LOSES ITS UPPER HOUSE MAJORITY

Year	Issue	Who Was Affected	Usual Party Alignment	Result	Stakeholder Voter Size
2022–25	North West Shelf gas extension	Environment groups and some Traditional Owners	Greens-leaning	Lost	More than 750 appeals against the EPA recommendation (Appeals Convenor)
2025	Exmouth Gulf Marine Park	Recreational fishers	Regional	Ongoing	Not counted
2025–	Firefighters' pay, current dispute	Career firefighters	Organised labour	Ongoing	About 1,400 career firefighters (DFES 1,266 in 2022-23 plus 132 funded since)
2025	Demersal and shark fishing ban	Commercial demersal and shark fishers	Regional, Nationals, One Nation and Liberal-leaning	Lost	170+ commercial businesses statewide; petition of 27,000+ signatures
2018–25	Surrogacy reform	Conservative MPs and the Australian Christian Lobby	Social conservative, Mixed Party	Lost	NA
2026	University merger of UWA, Curtin and Murdoch	Curtin and Murdoch universities, students, staff, alumni and unions	Cross-aligned	Ongoing	About 123,000 students and about 17,500 staff - mass public opposition

The above is of course not an exhaustive list and its information is there for illustrative and indicative purposes only pertaining to the thrust of the article. If you would like the full list with verfified data please contact us directly.

THE DRIVERS:

1. They believe they have an electoral mandate, having been voted into office on the promise or pledge

to do something. They seek to ‘make good’ on their electoral promises to be perceived as trustworthy, to

put ‘social capital’ in the bank.

2. They carry amongst their members deep-seated ideological inclinations to certain policy positions,

often immune to scrutiny and indifferent to opposing views. The larger the majority, the more often these

deep-seated views will sprout up in decisions. This also results in less consultation with key

stakeholders who might be affected by their policy changes.

3. They believe it politically expedient to act, or to be publicly perceived to act, in a certain way to satisfy

the media, public or the social attitudes of the day. This is why politicians love a photo opportunity: they

like to be seen to be getting things done. Style over substance.

4. Action trumps inaction and creates the optics of leadership and competence, even if not doing

anything might be the wiser option in the proper analysis. Remember, no government wants to look

indecisive as this equates to weakness and can be used against them by the press and their political

adversaries.

5. They are faced with a confronting financial, economic or scientific reality which means they are

forced to act, not necessarily in their desired manner, but through the perceived need to take action from

public expectation.

6. They seek to avoid public and personal humiliation. The threat of being perceived as objectively

incompetent, could risk their electoral prospects or cause embarrassment to the government, ministers or

departmental heads. The survival instinct kicks in. Preserving reputation at a government and ministerial

level is paramount in all their endeavours.

7. Where what constitutes the ‘public good’ is incontestable and bipartisan, governments will make

decisions in good faith and in a non-partisan manner. This is not altogether altruistic, as it creates

‘social capital’.

8. Where economic or budgetary constraints prevent the delivery of optimal outcomes to

stakeholders, token gestures are used to placate those affected and to create the optics of action and empathy. Again: action over inaction, decision over indecisiveness, a fallback argument that ‘we did something’.

9. Once a position has been announced, reversing it is read as weakness, so a failing policy will be

defended long past the point at which the evidence has turned against it. This points to the next rule.

10. Layers of bureaucracy can make procedure and protocol the cause of disruption or delay – and

hence a great excuse for political or party prevarication or incompetence: taking responsibility away

from ministers and buying time on taking action, if taking action is perceived too risky to the government’s

reputation or if there is internal debate and disagreement.

11. Further ‘unaccountability sinks’ can be used, such as outsourcing methodology and analysis to

third party external consultants who will simply 'construct the affirmative case' for the government’s

desired policy. Where the policy fails, or public sentiment cannot be harnessed as expected, ‘the advice’

was the consultant’s and hence their fault. Vast swathes of public money is spent on exercises such as

this, when the work could have been done at a departmental level in consultation with relevant industry.

Yet not only can outsourcing responsibility for information and advice inoculate the government from

responsibility (to a certain degree) it can also simply act as a ‘rubber stamp’ for a decision already

internally taken by the government on arbitrary or ideological reasons.

12. ‘Ideological capture’ of public sector and governmental departments can have serious influence in

the development and rollout of policy, as it colours the information and advice given to ministers and

also influences the outcomes of policy implementation – as well as sometimes even the construction of

the legislation and regulations themselves. In practical sense it means that going via departmental routes

to the government’s ear, cannot always be relied upon. And vice versa. It must also be said that often

high-level public-sector appointments can also be made from a ‘political’ dimension who develop their

own narratives often in misalignment with the industries they are meant to oversee.

NEXT STEPS:

If your organisation or business requires help with understanding government positions on certain policy topics, or if you require advice for how best to influence government decision making and public attitudes - please get in touch today for a confidential discussion.

FOR FURTHER READING:

- Rory Sutherland, 'Policy-making under uncertainty', Behavioural Public Policy 2, no. 2 (2018)

- R. Kent Weaver, 'The Politics of Blame Avoidance', Journal of Public Policy 6, no. 4 (1986)

- Christopher Hood, The Blame Game: Spin, Bureaucracy, and Self-Preservation in Government (Princeton:

Princeton University Press, 2011).

- Barry M. Staw, 'Knee-Deep in the Big Muddy: A Study of Escalating Commitment to a Chosen Course of Action',

Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 16, no. 1 (1976)

- Dan Davies, The Unaccountability Machine (London: Profile Books, 2024).